2019年(nian)新季中晚秈(xian)稻(dao)已開(kai)始自南向北陸續零(ling)星(xing)收(shou)割上市(shi),各收(shou)購主體已開(kai)始準備收(shou)購。同時(shi)自9月2日(ri)起國(guo)家臨(lin)儲已暫停(ting)部(bu)分稻(dao)谷(gu)拍賣(mai)為新稻(dao)上市(shi)讓路。那么(me)2019年(nian)新季稻(dao)谷(gu)會是(shi)什(shen)么(me)樣的(de)行情(qing)走勢呢(ni)?想必農戶以(yi)及(ji)各收(shou)購主體十分關(guan)心(xin)。畢竟老百姓靠天吃飯,但(dan)今年(nian)以(yi)來天不(bu)如人愿,北方(fang)洪(hong)澇災(zai)害頻發、南方(fang)高(gao)溫(wen)干(gan)旱少雨。從(cong)已知的(de)情(qing)況來看,2019年(nian)新稻(dao)質量或難達到米(mi)企(qi)使用要求。中國(guo)糧油(you)信息網(wang)分析(xi)師尹秀(xiu)穎(ying)接下來將與您從(cong)南北方(fang)產區具體情(qing)況與大家共同交(jiao)流與探討!
粳稻方面
2019年(nian)東(dong)(dong)(dong)北產(chan)(chan)(chan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)新(xin)(xin)季水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)整體長(chang)勢可(ke)(ke)謂是(shi)(shi)命運多舛,主(zhu)要表(biao)現(xian)在插秧期(qi)積溫(wen)(wen)溫(wen)(wen)度都較往年(nian)偏低(di),不(bu)利于新(xin)(xin)季水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)生長(chang),據(ju)最新(xin)(xin)的(de)全國(guo)農(nong)業(ye)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)月(yue)報數(shu)據(ju)統計,8月(yue),全國(guo)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)(wen)為21.9℃,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)偏低(di)0.3℃,比(bi)(bi)常年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)偏高0.8℃。東(dong)(dong)(dong)北地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和內蒙古(gu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)(wen)偏低(di),其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)黑龍(long)江(jiang)(jiang)西南部(bu)(bu)(bu)、內蒙古(gu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)南部(bu)(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)偏低(di)1~2℃。全國(guo)農(nong)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)降水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)量(liang)有(you)50~250毫米(mi)(mi),其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)黑龍(long)江(jiang)(jiang)東(dong)(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、吉林(lin)(lin)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、遼寧大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、山東(dong)(dong)(dong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、浙江(jiang)(jiang)東(dong)(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、兩廣南部(bu)(bu)(bu)、海(hai)南等地(di)有(you)250~600毫米(mi)(mi);北方大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)日照略偏少,其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)(dong)(dong)北地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和內蒙古(gu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)北部(bu)(bu)(bu)等地(di)偏少3~5成(cheng)。同(tong)(tong)時(shi)揚花期(qi)再(zai)次遭遇連續陰雨天(tian)氣(qi)(qi),使(shi)得(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)癟粒、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病現(xian)象(xiang)較為普通。長(chang)期(qi)持續的(de)降雨過程不(bu)僅(jin)使(shi)得(de)(de)低(di)洼地(di)帶已被淹沒,造成(cheng)的(de)后(hou)果就是(shi)(shi)減(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)甚至是(shi)(shi)絕產(chan)(chan)(chan)的(de)狀態。特別是(shi)(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周末(mo)13號臺風“玲玲”過境,使(shi)得(de)(de)吉林(lin)(lin)、黑龍(long)江(jiang)(jiang)東(dong)(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、哈爾(er)濱周邊(bian)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域方正、木蘭、五常部(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)出(chu)現(xian)了大(da)(da)(da)(da)面(mian)積倒伏(fu)現(xian)象(xiang),特別是(shi)(shi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)花香品種,倒伏(fu)面(mian)積近(jin)幾年(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)最大(da)(da)(da)(da),減(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)或已呈(cheng)定局。另(ling)外(wai)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)田地(di)積水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)嚴重無(wu)法繼續外(wai)排或下滲,再(zai)加上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)當前(qian)(qian)白天(tian)溫(wen)(wen)度較高,后(hou)期(qi)貼(tie)近(jin)地(di)面(mian)的(de)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)將出(chu)現(xian)發芽、霉(mei)變的(de)現(xian)象(xiang)。根(gen)據(ju)新(xin)(xin)季水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)生長(chang)情況(kuang)來看,后(hou)期(qi)若不(bu)再(zai)有(you)極端(duan)天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)出(chu)現(xian),新(xin)(xin)季水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)將推遲上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)市一(yi)周左(zuo)右。值得(de)(de)注(zhu)意的(de)是(shi)(shi),2019年(nian)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)最低(di)保護價(jia)(jia)暫(zan)未調整,與上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)持平(ping)即(ji)為1.30元/斤,國(guo)標三(san)等。圓粒水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)方面(mian)將圍繞托市價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)小幅波動,暫(zan)不(bu)會出(chu)現(xian)大(da)(da)(da)(da)幅上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)的(de)跡象(xiang)。長(chang)粒水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)種植(zhi)面(mian)積雖(sui)有(you)增(zeng)加但(dan)主(zhu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)除了黑龍(long)江(jiang)(jiang)西部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)以外(wai),其他地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)有(you)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)程度的(de)受災,優質(zhi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)價(jia)(jia)將高開,特別是(shi)(shi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)花香品種。由于2018年(nian)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)價(jia)(jia)低(di),種植(zhi)收益下降,農(nong)戶種植(zhi)結構均(jun)(jun)有(you)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)程度的(de)調整。一(yi)方面(mian),當前(qian)(qian)米(mi)(mi)企(qi)均(jun)(jun)有(you)一(yi)定量(liang)的(de)陳稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)庫存,原糧(liang)供應相對充足,可(ke)(ke)維持生產(chan)(chan)(chan)至新(xin)(xin)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)市,對新(xin)(xin)糧(liang)收購將保持謹慎(shen)的(de)態度。另(ling)一(yi)方面(mian),雖(sui)然(ran)新(xin)(xin)季水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)或將減(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan),但(dan)仍要看大(da)(da)(da)(da)米(mi)(mi)終端(duan)需求是(shi)(shi)否可(ke)(ke)以支撐其價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)。長(chang)期(qi)以來東(dong)(dong)(dong)北產(chan)(chan)(chan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)米(mi)(mi)出(chu)貨受制于南方粳米(mi)(mi)牽制,畢竟該產(chan)(chan)(chan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)米(mi)(mi)價(jia)(jia)低(di),且多以18年(nian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)晚(wan)粳米(mi)(mi)為主(zhu)。南方江(jiang)(jiang)蘇(su)、安徽產(chan)(chan)(chan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)新(xin)(xin)季晚(wan)粳稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)整體長(chang)勢良好,暫(zan)無(wu)極端(duan)天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)影(ying)響,豐產(chan)(chan)(chan)可(ke)(ke)期(qi)。
秈稻方面
截止目前(qian)(qian)已(yi)有三(san)個省份先(xian)后啟動了(le)早秈(xian)稻托市(shi)收(shou)購(gou)(gou)(gou)工作,分別是(shi)安(an)徽、江西與(yu)湖南省份。由于早秈(xian)稻托市(shi)結(jie)束日期為9月30日,再加(jia)上(shang)早秈(xian)稻啟動時間晚,整體產(chan)(chan)量(liang)較(jiao)往(wang)年(nian)少,因此托市(shi)總(zong)量(liang)也(ye)將難超上(shang)一年(nian)。中(zhong)晚秈(xian)稻方面,目前(qian)(qian)主產(chan)(chan)區(qu)江西、湖北(bei)、湖南、安(an)徽等(deng)(deng)地上(shang)市(shi)量(liang)增(zeng)加(jia),各主體紛(fen)紛(fen)入(ru)(ru)市(shi)收(shou)購(gou)(gou)(gou),整體質量(liang)也(ye)較(jiao)開稱初期有所好轉。今年(nian)以來中(zhong)晚秈(xian)稻質量(liang)較(jiao)差,主要是(shi)受(shou)持(chi)續(xu)近一個月的(de)(de)高溫天氣,降雨量(liang)少,使得新(xin)稻碎米(mi)含量(liang)高、腹白偏重。據中(zhong)國(guo)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)油信息網(wang)了(le)解,截止目前(qian)(qian)主產(chan)(chan)區(qu)出(chu)(chu)(chu)米(mi)率(lv)最高的(de)(de)可(ke)達(da)到66%嗎,其中(zhong)安(an)徽產(chan)(chan)區(qu)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)點以及米(mi)廠收(shou)購(gou)(gou)(gou)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)1.15-1.19元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤,出(chu)(chu)(chu)米(mi)率(lv)62-64%、湖北(bei)荊州、荊門、仙桃(tao)等(deng)(deng)地收(shou)購(gou)(gou)(gou)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)1.15-1.22元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤不等(deng)(deng),出(chu)(chu)(chu)米(mi)率(lv)在(zai)62-63%,極個別在(zai)66%,但(dan)量(liang)非常少。據米(mi)企反映,中(zhong)央儲備(bei)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)在(zai)收(shou)購(gou)(gou)(gou),主流(liu)收(shou)購(gou)(gou)(gou)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)1.22-1.23元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤,國(guo)標三(san)等(deng)(deng)糧(liang)(liang)(liang),但(dan)質量(liang)要求嚴格(ge),能達(da)到入(ru)(ru)庫的(de)(de)標準的(de)(de)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)源比較(jiao)少,實際入(ru)(ru)庫價(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)1.20元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤。由于優(you)質糧(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)少,且在(zai)已(yi)結(jie)束的(de)(de)陳中(zhong)晚秈(xian)稻拍賣中(zhong),最高成交價(jia)(jia)已(yi)達(da)到1.26元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤左右,部分做(zuo)品(pin)牌企業仍(reng)是(shi)需要囤庫,隨著新(xin)稻質量(liang)的(de)(de)提高,其價(jia)(jia)格(ge)也(ye)將隨之上(shang)漲,建議貿(mao)易商有優(you)質糧(liang)(liang)(liang)源的(de)(de)可(ke)持(chi)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)觀望待價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲后再進(jin)行拋(pao)售。
綜上所述2019年新季水稻大量上市(shi)(shi)后稻價(jia)(jia)將呈穩中趨漲(zhang)態勢,多(duo)圍托市(shi)(shi)價(jia)(jia)附近(jin)小幅波動。雖然(ran)部分(fen)(fen)地(di)區減產將使得優(you)質糧價(jia)(jia)格高位(wei)運行,但稻價(jia)(jia)能否持續(xu)看(kan)漲(zhang)還是需(xu)要看(kan)市(shi)(shi)場大米(mi)(mi)終(zhong)端需(xu)求如(ru)何。從已上市(shi)(shi)的中晚秈(xian)米(mi)(mi)來(lai)看(kan),經銷商(shang)表示走(zou)貨滯緩,米(mi)(mi)出廠(chang)雖然(ran)漲(zhang)價(jia)(jia)意愿強烈,但終(zhong)端不(bu)認可,至少在(zai)當前仍(reng)(reng)有大部分(fen)(fen)的陳米(mi)(mi)仍(reng)(reng)在(zai)市(shi)(shi)場流通,抑制新米(mi)(mi)價(jia)(jia)格走(zou)高。